Big ADP Miss, Clear Downtrend in Employment

The latest ADP National Employment Report came in far worse than economists expected, underscoring clear weakness in the labor market.

ADP Private Payrolls:

• Actual: -33,000 jobs

• Expected: +98,000 jobs

This marks the first negative reading since March 2023, breaking over a year of positive monthly prints.

The chart tells the story, hiring picked up through late 2024 but has been sliding for months. Now it’s rolled over into outright job losses.

Employers aren’t just easing up on hiring anymore, they’re actively cutting jobs. This slowdown is picking up speed, pointing to higher unemployment on the horizon and more strain on consumer spending and the broader economy.

Bottom line: The labor market is losing steam fast, and it’s only a matter of time before the Fed feels forced to fire up the money printer and start cutting rates to keep things from unraveling.